The Beat The Recapper Story
So, what's this all ABOUT? It's about The Recapper looking for a challenge! He's just got to find out if his win/loss prediction vision for each NBA team is as clear as it seems to be. Could there be others with the same or even better clarity? So far, no one has come close to his level of prognostication abilities. That's why this web site. He's taking it to the masses. Will he finally find a competitor? Will he finally find someone to play with?
The Recapper's been so lonely at the top.
In a resent interview with an AP reporter, the story of the The Recapper, his incredible prediction abilities and his contest, Beat The Recapper, was told.
AP Reporter: This story you've been telling seems difficult to believe. If you've got this extraordinary talent to pick Wins and Losses of NBA games in the future and you've been doing it for 20 years, why are we now just hearing about it? Why are you not fabulously famous and wealthy?
The Recapper: Well, by nature I'm a little bit of a recluse – you know, little cabin, high in the mountains kind of guy. The air is clear, good vision comes naturally and the need for excess is minimal. It seems to me like I have everything. Everything but a compatriot, someone whose abilities may somewhat approach mine. From the very first, I never thought there wouldn't be others with a similar nature but, I'm getting older, I need to open this game up to all NBA fans just too finally know. Is there anyone that can beat me? Is there anyone with a crystal ball as clear as mine?
AP Reporter: Hum... ok so... do you make a living doing this? I mean, how do you survive? Do you ever get off this mountain and work for a wage somewhere?
The Recapper: Oh no, this is just for amusement, a little fun. Recapping NBA games isn't a money-making proposition for me. But as a kid in school I made a bit of cash pitching quarters and ran my winnings into the market. That's where this clairvoyant ability began. Everything I went into turned to gold. Haven't had to work lately.
AP Reporter: So this translated into the game of basketball? Now you 'see' Wins and Losses for as far as a month ahead of time?
The Recapper: I've always enjoyed the game. I'm a former point guard who could find the open man. I wasn't much of a scorer but, was the last of the great 2-handed set shooters. I would have averaged 6 a game if there was a 3-point line in my day. I grew up a Laker fan and obviously never liked cigar smoke. In 1989 the 82 game Laker schedule came out in the LA Times. I made a simple Win or Loss prediction for every game. And just like the market, I couldn't miss.
AP Reporter: But what made you think to do that, predict a full seasons worth of games? And for what purpose?
The Recapper: To tell you the truth, I think I got it from Chick Hearn. On one of his broadcasts I seem to recollect that he said Jerry West, then the Laker GM, would do the same thing before each season. I thought that I would just try it for fun. Not only was it fun but, I really wanted to see Jerry's picks at the end of the season. I'm sure I beat him but never wanted to put him on the spot. He was always an idol of mine. I would never want to embarrass him.
AP Reporter: So why is the current contest, Beat The Recapper, a month-to-month prediction contest? Why not predict the whole season ahead of time?
The Recapper: It was all because of Magic and his premature retirement. You see, after my first incredible prediction year, I recruited what I now call my Founding Fathers. They were a group of basketball junkies that I challenged to beat me. I just wanted to test my abilities to a broader market. It was a small group of 30 to 40 and we all picked the entire 82 game schedule. The season starts and Magic announces he's leaving the game. He's retiring from the Lakers. Not a dry eye among the Founding Fathers, any Laker fan and for that matter most true basketball fan.
AP Reporter: So you started over? Adjusted to pick every month?
The Recapper: Exactly! What else could I do? We kept our October and November picks the same but let everybody change up each month. It seemed fair to me and everybody else, too. We just played through the pain.
AP Reporter: Tell me about the contests measurement system and what the Closeness Measure is. It would seem to me that the winner should just be the person who gets the highest percentage of correct predictions out of 82 games? But that is not what you say is the most important thing.
The Recapper: Well in a sense it is. Winning the contest always comes down to the Accuracy Measure which you just described. But, I found out there would be far too many people being tied at the end of the year. So, I made Accuracy my tiebreaker and forced each player to land on the actual season ending Win/Loss record. This kept everybody honest. Think about it. For a team that will win most of their games, some players would just pick all Wins and end up with a very good prediction Accuracy. What fun is that?
AP Reporter: Wait a minute. I'm not sure I'm clear on this.
The Recapper: Now, don't make this difficult. Let's say for the October/November period you have the Lakers going with 15 wins and 5 losses. That's where you want them to end up at the end of the month – exactly at 15 and 5! You'll be right on the record and leading the contest as long as, you have also been the most Accurate. Accuracy means the games you picked as wins the Lakers actually win and when you picked a loss the Lakers actually lose. But first... you have to get the record right!
AP Reporter: Using your example of the Lakers going 15 and 5, what if I had 'em going 17 and 2 or let's say 14 and 6. What would my Closeness Measure be?
The Recapper: Now you're getting it! It the first case at 17 and 2, your Closeness Measure would show as a +2. You would have had 2 too many wins. Using the 14 and 6 record, your Closeness Measure would be a -1. You came up one win short.
AP Reporter: I think I've got it but, what happens if I'm +2 at the end of November? Will that affect how I predict the December schedule?
The Recapper: Sure should, shouldn't it? You probably will want to make an adjustment and 'underpredict' the number of wins you really think the Lakers would win in December. That's an adjustment. Keep in mind, you can adjust at each monthly prediction point. Your goal is landing right on the record at years end – on the 82 game!
AP Reporter: But by doing these 'adjustments', wouldn't it affect your the tiebreaking Accuracy Measure?
The Recapper: That's the pain, baby! It sure will or you'll still be 'off' the record. And I guarantee you, we'll have multiple players ending the season perfectly matching the Lakers ending record. Those are the chosen ones in which their prediction 'Accuracy' will break the tie and we'll find our winner. Remember though, the more 'adjustments' during the season you have to make to 'get on the record' at seasons end, the more likely your Accuracy percentage is taking a hit. Sorry, this is a thinking man's game. However, in my case, I just feel it, see it.
AP Reporter: Then you throw on another tiebreaker called the Streak Measure. What's that about and why?
The Recapper: This is the first time every using it. Why, you ask? I don't think it will be necessary but, with all the potential players entering the contest, I just felt like it might be required. So it's there. And simply, we're going to look at everybody's beginning-of-season Accuracy streak – how many predictions, wins or losses, did you get right in a row to start the season off. It necessary, we'll use that to break any final ties.
AP Reporter: Geez, I'm kind of exhausted. I think I get it. Do I?
The Recapper: Oh yea, you get it but, you'll learn a lot in your Rookie year especially with 'adjusting' to the record. Don't be afraid, just play. You'll catch on quick and it won't take you really any time. It's not like fantasy games. Those guys spend time. This is just a little fun win/loss prediction contest for bragging rights. And for me, I'm looking for a competitor – anyone who might be in my league.
AP Reporter: Wait a minute. Bragging rights? That's all the incentive we have? What do we really get if we beat you, we Beat The Recapper?
The Recapper: Well, I guess that's a good question. I've never really thought about it. I've never considered it a possibility. Let's just say, I wish you luck. If it happens, then I'll think about it. Are you in, AP Reporter?
AP Reporter: Sure, I'm in. Can I meet with you after the first month to get some more of your insight and to gloat as I put you to shame?
The Recapper: Ooh, love you're moxy! Certainly, see you in late November. Now careful getting down the mountain, there are a few slippery slopes. I wouldn't want you to miss our next meeting.
AP Reporter: Uh thanks, I think.